In Sane

video coming late March/ early April

Thank you for your patience. 2010 great year thus far. The time is now. This is it.

Will pick up the slack with more posts in the coming days.

Be well, be present.

Otherwise Kali will chop your fucking head off.

Happy New Year

2009 be done.

Am working on some 2010 game changers...

That's fucking right. 2010 I am bringing a video series, vignettes really, because I love that word: vignettes, to the small screen.

They will be completely unrelated to finance, completely unrelated to the economy, completely unrelated to the external world, and will be focused exclusively, in totality on your inner world, your inside game, your internal locus, your heart center.

We will get that right or just a little bit righter, and from there, the other external stuff will fall into place, or just fall away, become irrelevant.

Opt in: inside. Opt out: outside. Opt in: optimism.

While you wait, see Avatar: message movie of the decade.

And here is a picture of Kali fucking Shiva.

Taleb Joins Me In Exile (via HuffPost)

I don't write Econ/Finance posts anymore, I can't stomach it, and my hero, Nassim Taleb feels the same way. I'll let him do the talking, from today's Huffington Post:

Good Bye! The Reappointment Of Bernanke Is Too Much To Bear

What I am seeing and hearing on the news -- the reappointment of Bernanke -- is too hard for me to bear. I cannot believe that we, in the 21st century, can accept living in such a society. I am not blaming Bernanke (he doesn't even know he doesn't understand how things work or that the tools he uses are not empirical); it is the Senators appointing him who are totally irresponsible -- as if we promoted every doctor who caused malpractice. The world has never, never been as fragile. Economics make homeopath and alternative healers look empirical and scientific.

No news, no press, no Davos, no suit-and-tie fraudsters, no fools. I need to withdraw as immediately as possible into the Platonic quiet of my library, work on my next book, find solace in science and philosophy, and mull the next step. I will also structure trades with my Universa friends to bet on the next mistake by Bernanke, Summers, and Geithner. I will only (briefly) emerge from my hiatus when the publishers force me to do so upon the publication of the paperback edition of The Black Swan.

Bye,
Nassim

Amen.

Inductive Reasoning Fallacy

A holiday lesson on thinking, straight from my idol Nassim Taleb:

A turkey lives 1000 days. Every day for 999 days the turkey is fed and fattened, eating a little more everyday.

Let's say for the sake of this piece that this turkey is a fantasy free-range turkey, not the traditional mass-produced, death-farmed, slaughterhouse, pig-boned, steroid special you will be eating this Thursday.

So from this turkey's perspective he is happier and happier every day, thinking to himself, "Wow, what a great life I have. Every day just gets better and better and every day I just get bigger and bigger!"

Day 1000. Chop. Thwack. Slaughter. Gutted.

Today has everything to do with yesterday, until it violently does not. Past performance is not indicative of future results. In other words, yesterday has nothing to do with the here and now.

And for that we can all be grateful!

Happy Thanksgiving all. Please keep the slaughterhouse product consumption to a minimum this year.

And don't be a turkey.

Pop.

I'm gonna do my best to explain what's going on here on earth, and then after this post, I really mean it this time, no more finance posts.

There's a lot more interesting stuff going on out there which I can't wait to write about. I do thank you so much for spending time here and in my gratitude, I do feel an obligation to explain this one more time and then let it all go.

So as my final reportage, here you go:

After 25+ years of misfeasance, easy money at the Fed, we're broke, and going broker, we are fighting two illegal/ immoral wars, on our way to a third.

Peace Prize!

So, we had absolutely no money last year when the Banks blew up due to the incompetence ethos, survival of the slimiest, etc. But the oligarchy needed to get paid, so we had the bailouts when said banks indicated it would be the end of world if they could not pay bonuses.

It was!! Only good call they made in 20 years.

Yes, so not only are we run by corporations, but by failed corporations -from Mr. Obama on down.

Sigh... He has not made any difference despite my false hopes.

This is NOT Capitalism despite Michael Moore's wishes. This is not Socialism nor Communism either. Those models would imply we are redistributing wealth from rich to poor.

It's the opposite here. This is straight up banana republic.

Okay you get it already, no money here, bananaland, our balance sheet has trillions in debt we simply, arithmetically cannot pay.

So we will print it. We will create it out of paper and ink. That was okay way back when we had something of worth backing it, like gold.

And it was still good for a while after that when we were a production-based, non-consumer-based nation, as it was backed by the full faith and credit of the taxing power of the US Congress.

That used to mean something. Now it does not. So the printing to pay debts, coupled with the lack of real demand for said dollars will only lead to one outcome:

Hyperinflation and the likely dissolution (or major restructuring) of the United States.

Look at the stock markets, look at gold and other commodities. I made a mistake when I told you to sell US stocks 1000 points ago. You can hold anything as long as it's not US dollars. Pet rocks will go up in price in dollar terms.

(*Except your house. That credit-based asset will continue to plummet and basically ruin your life -Enjoy!)

So, my mistake, although I was prettay, prettay clear about holding gold or foreign stocks which both way outperformed US stocks this year.

If you followed my blog and did what the fuck I told you for the past two years, you are basically crushing it.

You're welcome. Gravy fucking train is over. I"m too bored with all this. You can always call me...

No, you cannot.

I still think the US stock market is the biggest stock bubble in history, but it is competing with the biggest asset bubble in history, that which dwarfs the stock market.

The deflationists look at the US fundamentals and rightfully see awfulness and much lower prices going forward. Like me, they see bankrupt companies like AIG, Citigroup, Bank of America, Fannie Mae, etc. lead the charge the higher, and shake their pointy heads.

They see the stock bubble but miss the biggest bubble of all time popping before their eyes.

And that bubble my friends, is the US Dollar.

Pop.

GOLD 100 OZ FUTR (USD/t oz.) $1050.90

Dear Ben Bernanke, Thank you for being you.

Dear Barrack Obama, Thank you for not understanding math.

Dear Wall Street TARP Bankers, Thank you for taking up all the last few hundred spots in hell.

Dear US Congress, Thank you for your awesome spending.

Dear America, Thank you for sleeping.