Wednesday, October 29, 2008

Time To Put This Mutha-Fucka In Command

Homestretch, Hope v. Fear -biggest election since the last one.

Intrade has the Obama contract at $85 (85%) which seems high, but closer to reality than polls or pundits: Landslide.

The idea is this: while I agree with my racist best friends back east on marginal taxes and all that, this whole thing is much bigger than marginal rates.

Marginal rates are a fucking joke compared to this mess.

And by the way, what kind of fucked up place have we become where we've socialized the richest people on earth (trillions to Wall Street), yet rail against socialization for the poor.

Just give me a little fucking consistency is all.

We are in dire straits here, worse than even the hyperbolic media tells us.

I give Obama a 4 out of 10 in his understanding of the economic mess. McCain gets a Blutowski, 0.0.

But, Obama has the right guys, namely Volcker, that give us a maybe 50-50 shot of pulling out of this at some point. More important, he's got the hope, the optimism, the idea that everyone still has got a shot here.

Without that last belief we are doomed, you can bring marginal rates to zero, but if Americans are miserably struggling, while bank shareholders and execs are bailed out, we'll have a no joke violent revolution by Christmas -and I'm not really into that.

Plus, I've got a shitload of clean energy call options.

Anywhoski, we'll get the Pres we deserve. Going to NYC, see you next week. If I offended you with this post, fuck off.

GW 8 more years!!

Tuesday, October 21, 2008

Mandelbrot & Taleb: The Opposite of Bullish

Just saw my heroes, Benoit Mandelbrot of Chaos Theory/ Nobel fame, and Nassim Taleb of Black Swan mania, on Jim Lehrer.

They have more intellect in their pinkies than all of Wall Street and Washington combined -that's how intellect scales: fractal like the Mandelbrot set pictured.

Actually, I just made that up, intellect probably scales normal, then again. . . probably not. . .
Any who, 13 months ago in my 4th post ever (Sept 19, 2007), I recommended their books, Mandelbrot's The Misbehavior of Markets and Taleb's the Black Swan. I would also very much recommend Taleb's Fooled By Randomness.

They are mandatory reads for anyone who handles money. Of interest, when I sampled the 100 odd brokers and wholesalers I worked with at the now half-dead wire-house/ibank, no one had heard of them.

Because of General Laziness Syndrome and Ostrich Style Financial Statement Analysis, I will be writing ebook summations on all 3 books and selling them for a very reasonable price on my new site TBA.

So basically, the point of this whole bloated post is; they (M & T) were not very bullish.

Just thought I'd pass that along.

And maybe forget about owning AAPL.

bottled water, shotgun, canned tofu, machete, biohazard suit and $3000 MacBook Pro

AAPL knocks it out. . .
again.











One of 3 stocks you can own into Armageddon Season.

Monday, October 20, 2008

Greatest Bloomberg Article Ever

(thanks to Dealbreaker comments for the link, full article pasted)

Lahde Quits Hedge Funds, Thanks `Idiots' for Success (Update1)

By Katherine Burton

Oct. 17 (Bloomberg) -- Andrew Lahde, the hedge-fund manager who quit after posting an 870 percent gain last year, said farewell to clients in a letter that thanks stupid traders for making him rich and ends with a plea to legalize marijuana.

Lahde, head of Santa Monica, California-based Lahde Capital Management LLC, told investors last month he was returning their cash because the risk of using credit derivatives -- his means of betting on the falling value of bonds and loans, including subprime mortgages -- was too risky given the weakness of the banks he was trading with.

``I was in this game for money,'' Lahde, 37, wrote in a two-page letter today in which he said he had come to hate the hedge-fund business. ``The low-hanging fruit, i.e. idiots whose parents paid for prep school, Yale and then the Harvard MBA, was there for the taking. These people who were (often) truly not worthy of the education they received (or supposedly received) rose to the top of companies such as AIG, Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers and all levels of our government.

``All of this behavior supporting the Aristocracy, only ended up making it easier for me to find people stupid enough to take the other sides of my trades. God Bless America.''

Lahde, who managed about $80 million, told clients he'll be content to invest his own money, rather than taking cash from wealthy individuals and institutions and trying to amass a fortune worth hundreds of millions or even billions of dollars.

``I do not understand the legacy thing,'' he wrote. ``Nearly everyone will be forgotten. Give up on leaving your mark. Throw the Blackberry away and enjoy life.''

Request for Soros

He said he'd spend his time repairing his health ``as well as my entire life -- where I had to compete for spaces at universities, and graduate schools, jobs and assets under management -- with those who had all the advantages (rich parents) that I did not.''

He also suggested that billionaire George Soros sponsor a forum in which ``great minds'' would come together to create a new system of government, as the current system ``is clearly broken.''

Lahde ended his letter with a plea for the increased use of hemp as an alternative source of food and energy that segued into a call for the legalization of marijuana.

``Hemp has been used for at least 5,000 years for cloth and food, as well as just about everything that is produced from petroleum products,'' he wrote. ``Hemp is not marijuana and vice versa. Hemp is the male plant and it grows like a weed, hence the slang term.''

`Innocuous Plant'

He added, ``The evil female plant -- marijuana. It gets you high, it makes you laugh, it does not produce a hangover. Unlike alcohol, it does not result in bar fights or wife beating. So, why is this innocuous plant illegal? Is it a gateway drug? No, that would be alcohol, which is so heavily advertised in this country.''

Lahde said the only reason marijuana remains illegal is because ``Corporate America, which owns Congress, would rather sell you Paxil, Zoloft, Xanax and other addictive drugs, than allow you to grow a plant in your home without some of the profits going into their coffers.''

Lahde graduated from Michigan State University with a degree in finance and holds an MBA from the University of California, Los Angeles. He worked at Los Angeles-based hedge fund Dalton Investments LLC before founding his own firm two years ago with about $10 million.

Lahde wasn't available for comment. A woman at his firm, who asked not to be identified, confirmed the authenticity of the letter.

To contact the reporter on this story: Katherine Burton in New York at kburton@bloomberg.net
Last Updated: October 17, 2008 16:27 EDT

Friday, October 17, 2008

Thursday, October 16, 2008

album of the year

Nonsense Terms (part 1)

If your Financial Advisor or a CNBC pundit says any of the following nonsense words, run for the hills.

If your Financial Advisor is a CNBC pundit, cyanide capsules.



"market bottom"
"oversold"
"overbought"
"price to book"
"price to earnings"
"diversification"
"mutual fund"
"standard deviation"
"efficient markets"
"long-term investing"
"modern portfolio theory"
"Monte Carlo simulation"
"annuity"
"good as cash"
"variance"
"bell curve"
"don't panic"