Sunday, April 26, 2009

Long Crying

Greetings white earthlings.

WARNING: No, not swine flu. Although please be careful with your (non-vegan) bacon consumption from mass produced slaughterhouses this week. And please keep your usual animal flesh gorging to neanderthalic minimums until this blows over.

Warning regarding the following piece: It is about money, so move on to the Huffington Post or ramdass.org if you are already mid-yawn.

I promise my next piece will be a vegan cookie recipe or a sitar youtube.

This is how we are trading armageddon and why (with a style nod to the Gartman letter, and giving you the benefit of the doubt in knowing we are simply talking/pumping our positions).

We are still very long of gold. We gave you this trade at the beginning of the year in the low $800s, it has been way up at $1000, back down again, and is now at $917. You made money on this trade if you did it. If not, you still have time. We have a silver miner as well to ride this train. You want the rationale, please scroll back (Jan+Feb).

We are long of Canadian Energy Trusts some yielding over 20%. Do you believe the banker bailout money printing bonanza will not cause commodity price inflation? Do you believe that Nat Gas will stay below $3.50 and Crude will stay below $50 next year? Do you believe that the US is better run than Canada? If yes to any of the above, do not do this trade.

We are long of China domestic/non-export companies. We are long of Indian companies of the same ilk. Have you been to India? Have you been to China? If not, move there and do this trade. If yes, move there and do this trade.

We are short of US equities as a hedge via DXD. We are short the worst companies of all time, the banks via FAZ. We don't care how many trillions the USG puts in the black hole, every one of these banks should be trading below $5 like any other government entity with endless losses and gains derived from government supported Enron Accounting.

Endless trough feeding via TARP, and FDIC borrowing at the artificial rate, you'd think these firms would be money machines.

You'd be wrong. Raging executive incompetence and a general public that has the nerve to actually understand the fleecing, will render these firms nationalized and trading near zero. Liquidate the shareholders, liquidate the bondholders, goodnight Citi, goodnight BofA. We are short Goldman Sachs via puts. We believe Goldman Sachs, besides being amazingly tone deaf, is the biggest menace to this country since Dennis the Menace.

We are short Commercial Real Estate/Simon Property Group via puts. George Soros is in this trade (short CRE). We are short Real Estate in general through SRS. If you do not understand derivatives stay away from the short trades. But we can recommend you sell your house and rent.

We are long Brazil via EWZ and some calls. We are long BIDU via calls on earnings tomorrow but may sell them before. We are also long of grains (non-animal Ags) through Chinese and Australian Ag firms. All positions are trade-able based on circumstances, meaning we can change our mind any time. If we do, we'll let you know.

We understand everything is still connected and a big selloff here will ripple everywhere.

We are net long, here.

We don't like bonds, not enough yield. We love Apple and probably always will but have no position in it.

We are long of Gay Marriage with a short position in Marriage In General as a hedge.

We are short of Torture with a long position in Gentle Slapping as a hedge.

We are long of Crying, unhedged.
We wish you luck in your trading.

Sunday, April 12, 2009

Equanimity

There is a Zen koan of an old farmer who had worked his crops for many years.

One day his horse ran away. Upon hearing the news, his neighbors came to visit. “Such bad luck,” they said sympathetically.

“Maybe yes, maybe no,” the farmer replied.

The next morning the horse returned, bringing with it three other wild horses. “How wonderful,” the neighbors exclaimed.

“Maybe yes, maybe no,” replied the old man.

The following day, his son tried to ride one of the untamed horses, was thrown, and broke his leg. The neighbors again came to offer their sympathy on his misfortune.

“Maybe yes, maybe no,” answered the farmer.

The day after, military officials came to the village to draft young men into the army. Seeing that the son’s leg was broken, they passed him by. The neighbors congratulated the farmer on how well things had turned out.

“Maybe yes, maybe no,” said the farmer. . .