Wednesday, October 29, 2008

Time To Put This Mutha-Fucka In Command

Homestretch, Hope v. Fear -biggest election since the last one.

Intrade has the Obama contract at $85 (85%) which seems high, but closer to reality than polls or pundits: Landslide.

The idea is this: while I agree with my racist best friends back east on marginal taxes and all that, this whole thing is much bigger than marginal rates.

Marginal rates are a fucking joke compared to this mess.

And by the way, what kind of fucked up place have we become where we've socialized the richest people on earth (trillions to Wall Street), yet rail against socialization for the poor.

Just give me a little fucking consistency is all.

We are in dire straits here, worse than even the hyperbolic media tells us.

I give Obama a 4 out of 10 in his understanding of the economic mess. McCain gets a Blutowski, 0.0.

But, Obama has the right guys, namely Volcker, that give us a maybe 50-50 shot of pulling out of this at some point. More important, he's got the hope, the optimism, the idea that everyone still has got a shot here.

Without that last belief we are doomed, you can bring marginal rates to zero, but if Americans are miserably struggling, while bank shareholders and execs are bailed out, we'll have a no joke violent revolution by Christmas -and I'm not really into that.

Plus, I've got a shitload of clean energy call options.

Anywhoski, we'll get the Pres we deserve. Going to NYC, see you next week. If I offended you with this post, fuck off.

GW 8 more years!!

Tuesday, October 21, 2008

Mandelbrot & Taleb: The Opposite of Bullish

Just saw my heroes, Benoit Mandelbrot of Chaos Theory/ Nobel fame, and Nassim Taleb of Black Swan mania, on Jim Lehrer.

They have more intellect in their pinkies than all of Wall Street and Washington combined -that's how intellect scales: fractal like the Mandelbrot set pictured.

Actually, I just made that up, intellect probably scales normal, then again. . . probably not. . .
Any who, 13 months ago in my 4th post ever (Sept 19, 2007), I recommended their books, Mandelbrot's The Misbehavior of Markets and Taleb's the Black Swan. I would also very much recommend Taleb's Fooled By Randomness.

They are mandatory reads for anyone who handles money. Of interest, when I sampled the 100 odd brokers and wholesalers I worked with at the now half-dead wire-house/ibank, no one had heard of them.

Because of General Laziness Syndrome and Ostrich Style Financial Statement Analysis, I will be writing ebook summations on all 3 books and selling them for a very reasonable price on my new site TBA.

So basically, the point of this whole bloated post is; they (M & T) were not very bullish.

Just thought I'd pass that along.

And maybe forget about owning AAPL.

bottled water, shotgun, canned tofu, machete, biohazard suit and $3000 MacBook Pro

AAPL knocks it out. . .
again.











One of 3 stocks you can own into Armageddon Season.

Monday, October 20, 2008

Greatest Bloomberg Article Ever

(thanks to Dealbreaker comments for the link, full article pasted)

Lahde Quits Hedge Funds, Thanks `Idiots' for Success (Update1)

By Katherine Burton

Oct. 17 (Bloomberg) -- Andrew Lahde, the hedge-fund manager who quit after posting an 870 percent gain last year, said farewell to clients in a letter that thanks stupid traders for making him rich and ends with a plea to legalize marijuana.

Lahde, head of Santa Monica, California-based Lahde Capital Management LLC, told investors last month he was returning their cash because the risk of using credit derivatives -- his means of betting on the falling value of bonds and loans, including subprime mortgages -- was too risky given the weakness of the banks he was trading with.

``I was in this game for money,'' Lahde, 37, wrote in a two-page letter today in which he said he had come to hate the hedge-fund business. ``The low-hanging fruit, i.e. idiots whose parents paid for prep school, Yale and then the Harvard MBA, was there for the taking. These people who were (often) truly not worthy of the education they received (or supposedly received) rose to the top of companies such as AIG, Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers and all levels of our government.

``All of this behavior supporting the Aristocracy, only ended up making it easier for me to find people stupid enough to take the other sides of my trades. God Bless America.''

Lahde, who managed about $80 million, told clients he'll be content to invest his own money, rather than taking cash from wealthy individuals and institutions and trying to amass a fortune worth hundreds of millions or even billions of dollars.

``I do not understand the legacy thing,'' he wrote. ``Nearly everyone will be forgotten. Give up on leaving your mark. Throw the Blackberry away and enjoy life.''

Request for Soros

He said he'd spend his time repairing his health ``as well as my entire life -- where I had to compete for spaces at universities, and graduate schools, jobs and assets under management -- with those who had all the advantages (rich parents) that I did not.''

He also suggested that billionaire George Soros sponsor a forum in which ``great minds'' would come together to create a new system of government, as the current system ``is clearly broken.''

Lahde ended his letter with a plea for the increased use of hemp as an alternative source of food and energy that segued into a call for the legalization of marijuana.

``Hemp has been used for at least 5,000 years for cloth and food, as well as just about everything that is produced from petroleum products,'' he wrote. ``Hemp is not marijuana and vice versa. Hemp is the male plant and it grows like a weed, hence the slang term.''

`Innocuous Plant'

He added, ``The evil female plant -- marijuana. It gets you high, it makes you laugh, it does not produce a hangover. Unlike alcohol, it does not result in bar fights or wife beating. So, why is this innocuous plant illegal? Is it a gateway drug? No, that would be alcohol, which is so heavily advertised in this country.''

Lahde said the only reason marijuana remains illegal is because ``Corporate America, which owns Congress, would rather sell you Paxil, Zoloft, Xanax and other addictive drugs, than allow you to grow a plant in your home without some of the profits going into their coffers.''

Lahde graduated from Michigan State University with a degree in finance and holds an MBA from the University of California, Los Angeles. He worked at Los Angeles-based hedge fund Dalton Investments LLC before founding his own firm two years ago with about $10 million.

Lahde wasn't available for comment. A woman at his firm, who asked not to be identified, confirmed the authenticity of the letter.

To contact the reporter on this story: Katherine Burton in New York at kburton@bloomberg.net
Last Updated: October 17, 2008 16:27 EDT

Friday, October 17, 2008

Thursday, October 16, 2008

album of the year

Nonsense Terms (part 1)

If your Financial Advisor or a CNBC pundit says any of the following nonsense words, run for the hills.

If your Financial Advisor is a CNBC pundit, cyanide capsules.



"market bottom"
"oversold"
"overbought"
"price to book"
"price to earnings"
"diversification"
"mutual fund"
"standard deviation"
"efficient markets"
"long-term investing"
"modern portfolio theory"
"Monte Carlo simulation"
"annuity"
"good as cash"
"variance"
"bell curve"
"don't panic"

Wednesday, October 15, 2008

Tuesday, October 14, 2008

Friday, October 10, 2008

Don't Nationalize Me, Brahh!

Too late.

Goodbye Capitalism.

Enjoy your weekend, all.

Blessings.

YT Greatest Fucking Hits Ever (Okay, 3 Months)

July 16, 2008 DJIA 11,239 So the question is: do you want the band-aid off fast or would you like it to take 8 fucking years. We've chosen the latter, so guess what, you cannot be long stocks or buy a house for any reason other than wanting to light hundred dollar bills on fire until around 2012 which I think is when the world ends anyway.

Here it is. We need the market to clear. That means we need the indexes down hard, we need several of the dumbest banks to fail, we need Paul Volcker to come in and jack rates, end inflation and sure up the plummeting dollar.

The guys in charge now are so compromised, so lacking in credibility, yet they keep tinkering around trying to plug holes where there are none, because guess what?

THERE'S NO MORE DAM, it's gone baby gone, you (we) are so under water, and messing around with short sellers, trying to bail out another I-bank, socializing risk is both prolonging the pain and making it worse.

But they will continue to take asinine steps like they did today because it's in their DNA. It's the strand known as the: Let's Keep Fucking Around With This Hand-Grenade Gene.

So tinker on, play politics, help out your idiot banker friends, you might get few hundred more points, maybe even a thousand, hell anything's possible, you may even get another bubble. Tinker on my friends, you cannot help yourselves, I know.

But, one thing is certain. This tinkering. . .will end in tears.


Aug. 25, 2008 DJIA 11,386 So yeah, I'm still bullish on this country 20 years out. Still believe we have a wicked awakening upon us in the markets and perhaps a depression, but we'll come out of it. I think we'll be all right now. I think so because Michelle Obama just delivered 5 million votes.

Sept. 18 2008 DJIA 11,020 Yeah, it gets better. Hedge Funds are a huge part of the economy. These funds are enormous, like massive beyond even the banks, which all just went out of business btw. As these funds blow up, and they will blow up at lightening speed now, they will need to liquidate, and this unwind will make the last week seem like a walk down Main Street Santa Monica -you know, like after yoga class you float over to the vegan cafe, have an elixir, jump in the ocean, fly your new kite, but i digress. . .

. . .So, the good news is the Market will rally hard, I mean hundreds, maybe a thousand points. (Sept. 18-19 DJIA rallied 800+) This will be followed by lethargy.

Which will be followed by the biggest crash in the history.

Oct. 9, 2008 DJIA 8579
*Oct 6-10, 2008 DJIA & S&P 500: worst weeks in history

Tuesday, October 7, 2008

Hello White People

In response to recent queries, and for those just now reading their 401k statements and weeping, let's do a review, shall we?

First, SEC Chair Chris Cox should be banned from the store. Yes, John McMaverick was right. For the proximate cause of the Market's recent 1500 point 3-week thrashing see here (from last month):

http://yogatrader.blogspot.com/2008/09/we-just-went-full-on-pakistan-style.html

For a broader exposition of the Market's 4500 point year long pantsing see here (from July):

http://yogatrader.blogspot.com/2008/07/warning-this-is-finance-post.html

Ugh!

Why, oh why can I not link here!? It's quite sad and making me melancholic, but I will keep working on it. In the meantime just fucking scroll backwards. Thanks. Keep it real.

(pic from www.stuffwhitepeoplelike.com -awesome)

Monday, October 6, 2008

Friday, October 3, 2008

Bailout To Nowhere

Pork Bailout Bill passed at 1:00 PM.

Market says thanks but no thanks.

Thursday, October 2, 2008

Bridge To Brainwave

This woman has no idea what she's talking about.

Carry on dancing with the stars.

Wednesday, October 1, 2008

Bailout Take 2

The guy is Lloyd Blankfein, CEO of Goldman Sachs.

The plane is us.

Enjoy your Fruit Loops.