Thursday, November 8, 2007

worst day ever (not really) and chart o' the day

we make our trades, we make our life choices, and then we live with them.

we rationalize our decisions after the fact, coming up w/ reasons bc it gives us a sense of order or control over ourselves, when let's face it, our trading decisions are usually quite animalistic -some combination of fear and greed.

that's why i love trading. it gets in there and makes you confront those issues w/ real time feedback.

got smacked today, no question. still up a hair, yet off about 33% in two days, but i did no selling today. i'm long right up til' x-mas bc i got that feeling today.

the feeling is pre-historic, and the feeling i had is FEAR -yeah, scared sh-tless.

buy fear, sell greed.

so anywho, since most would rather have some sort of analysis besides "i was scared, so i bought, here's something i just made up (for you chart lovers):

http://finance.google.com/finance?chdnp=1&chdd=1&chds=1&chdv=1&chvs=maximized&chdeh=0&chfdeh=0&chdet=1194566377000&chddm=84456&q=AMEX:DIA

this is YTD on the DIAmonds (The Dow Jones Industrial Average). i see a pattern (i see dead people). i see 3 corrections this year related to credit (i'm calling the present sell-off our third).

all three were sharp, deep, painful and very quick. the bottoms were marked by the capitulation of best of breed stocks, where the baby GOOGs, AAPLS, Goldmans, even GLD were thrown out w/ the bathwater. all three were marked by recession hype, and end-of-days housing chatter.

also, a high, a low, a higher high, a higher low, a higher high, and so far a higher low. . .

and the final capitulation was your best opportunity to get long the flyers.

i could easily be wrong. . .

we really could be on the straight-recession-express.

but that's not my bet.

-yt